BIA cuts local ad revenue outlook for 2022 | Broadcast + Cable

BIA Advisory Services has reduced its forecast for local ad revenue for 2022, but still sees strong increases for live TV and live video.

Despite headwinds caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, supply chain issues and automotive category spending cuts, BIA sees local over-the-air TV revenue grow 30.3% to reach $20.4 billion. – aerial advertising revenue will reach $21.4 billion. (BIA also increased its live TV revenue estimate for 2021 by $1 billion.).

Local cable revenues are expected to reach $6.5 billion, up 6%.

Online TV revenue forecast at $1.9 billion, up 18%. And over-the-top TV is expected to be the fastest growing media category, with revenues exceeding $2 billion for a 57% increase.

BIA raised its forecast for local political ad spending to $8.6 billion and said local television would get a significant share of that spending.

Overall, BIA sees local ad spend across all categories hitting $167.4 billion, down from the $173 billion forecast in December.

“The year didn’t start as strong as we expected, which made the first two quarters difficult as some planned ad spend started to decline,” said Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and economist. Chief for BIA Advisory Services. “On the one hand, personal income continues to rise, but the cost of consumer goods, rising gas prices and inflation are having a major impact and we believe this will influence how advertisers choose to use their advertising dollars in the coming months. All of this has to be weighed against what we see as a positive for local advertising this year.”

According to the BIA, traditional media will get 52.5% of local revenue, while digital media will get 47.5%. BIA’s numerical estimate has been reduced slightly as new iPhone privacy measures may slow the growth of mobile ads.

“We see the economy playing out in local advertising. For example, people saved money during the pandemic and now they are taking advantage of different areas in the leisure and recreation sectors. People are having vacations and activities, and even going back to the gym,” said NIcole Ovadia, vice president of forecasting and analytics at BIA.

“In all of these areas, including politics, we have increased local advertising expectations. For businesses that rely directly on supply chains, we have lowered expectations and will continue to monitor the situation throughout the summer expecting to revise our estimates as the economy is in such a state of flux,” Ovadia said. ■

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